SHOPIFY 2026 GLOBAL HOLIDAY RETAIL REPORT

THE HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON MEETS THE AGENTIC ERA

Armed with AI shopping tools and valuemaxxing strategies, shoppers are savvier than ever—businesses expecting growth need to adapt to reach them.

This holiday season, shoppers have roughly the same budget as last year, but a much higher bar for what earns it. They're researching more deeply, using AI to widen their options, and waiting until they find the specific product they truly want before making the purchase.

Drawing on 18,000 consumers and 7,500 business leaders across nine global markets, this report explores how businesses can turn that shifting consideration journey into confidence: making products easy to discover through AI, substantiating value with clear information and reviews, and delivering the reliability and human touch shoppers still expect. Those that can clearly and legibly showcase the depth behind their brand and products, not just the deepest discounts, will stand out this season.

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Businesses are optimistic; consumers are feeling the pressure

Consumers and businesses are heading into the season from distinct vantage points.

Shoppers are feeling economic pressure and adjusting how they buy in response. Businesses acknowledge challenges but are entering the season with optimism.

Impact of recent economic conditions on shopping plans

0% Positive0% Negative0% No impact0% Unsure

PositiveNegativeNo impactUnsure

Actions shoppers have taken in the past 12 months because of financial concerns

Have postponed a purchase because prices increased

Have postponed a purchase due to increases in living costs

Have saved money in case their circumstances change

Top challenges businesses face this holiday season

Rising costs of goods or operations

Increased competition

Weaker consumer demand from cost-of-living pressure

Results businesses anticipate over the holiday season

0%expect higher sales

2026

0%expect higher sales

2025

Shoppers still plan to spend

Despite shoppers acknowledging economic pressure, planned Black Friday weekend spending has only dipped slightly from 2025. Rather than drastically cutting back, shoppers are building in financial caution: most are setting budgets in advance, though not all are sure they will be able to stick to them.

Planned Black Friday weekend spending*

2026$0

2025$0

* All spending figures are in US dollars

How shoppers budget for the whole holiday season

I set a clear spending budget in advance of the festive holiday shopping season and stick to it carefully

I set a loose spending budget

I set a clear spending budget, but don't usually stick to it

I rarely set a spending budget

I never set a budget

Black Friday weekend participation skews younger

Planned participation peaks among 25-34 year-olds and falls steadily with age.

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Buyers are using AI to help them shop

With economic pressure rising, shoppers are researching their purchases harder. While organic search is still used widely when shoppers know what they're after, AI is emerging as a tool for finding deals, inspiration, and more research-intensive product searches.

are likely to use AI for at least one shopping task over the whole holiday shopping period

Top tasks shoppers plan to use AI for

Finding deals

Finding inspiration and discovering products

AI users are choosing independent brands more often

The shoppers that report using AI tools are also the most open to independent and niche brands, highlighting a growing opportunity for businesses to improve product discovery and win new customers.

More likely to choose independent or niche brands this year compared to last

of shoppers that almost-always use AI tools

of shoppers that don’t use AI tools

Less interested in buying from mass-market brands this year compared to last

of shoppers that almost-always use AI tools

of shoppers that don’t use AI tools

AI tools don't browse the way people do, so businesses that want to be discovered need accurate, structured product data that AI can read. Shopify Catalog is built to make that data legible to AI shopping tools, helping shoppers find the right products with up-to-date pricing, inventory, and descriptions.

Choosing more products because they feel personal, intentional or considered this year compared to last

of shoppers that almost-always use AI tools

of shoppers that don’t use AI tools

Businesses are leading with their differentiators

Alongside improving AI discoverability, businesses are giving shoppers further reasons to choose them by showcasing independent or specialist credentials.

How is your business positioning itself to appeal to shoppers looking for independent, niche, domestic, or specialist products?

by emphasizing products that are unique or hard to find

by emphasizing where and how their products are made

by highlighting their independent or small-business status

Shoppers prioritize AI for recommendations

Shoppers are more comfortable letting AI recommend products and even assemble a cart, but far fewer would hand over the final purchase.

Tasks shoppers will delegate to AI

are comfortable letting AI recommend which product is right for them

are comfortable letting AI build their cart as long as they complete the purchase

trust AI to make the purchase on their behalf

Businesses are building for this shift, prioritizing AI-driven features and making their stores easier for AI agents to read.

AI-driven features businesses are prioritizing this holiday shopping season

AI-generated content (e.g. product descriptions‚ image generation)

Making our store easy for AI assistants to read and recommend

AI-powered chatbots or virtual assistants

Personalized product recommendations

Top four actions businesses report taking to be prepared for AI-driven shopping:

Making sure pricing and discounts are clear and current

0%0%

Making sure product information is detailed‚ accurate‚ and up to date

0%0%

Keeping stock/inventory data accurate in real time

0%0%

Publishing clear delivery times and shipping costs

0%0%

are doing this wellare doing this but need to improve

AI shopping skews younger and higher-income

Income and age track directly with AI shopping. Frequent use more than doubles as household income climbs, and younger shoppers are far more likely to rely on AI than older ones.

Frequent AI use rises as household income climbs

0%(income under $19,000)

0%(income over $95,000)

Frequent AI use for shopping is highest among 18-24 year-olds

of 18-24 year-olds who often or almost always use AI when shopping

of those over 65 who often or almost always use AI when shopping

Trust will be won in the details

For shoppers, the top reasons to use AI more while shopping are clear pricing, easy comparisons, and reviews they can check before they act.

Insights that make shoppers more likely to use an AI tool

Clear information on price and discounts

Clear product reviews

Ability to compare the product against similar options

Clear delivery times and shipping costs

Shoppers are spending more deliberately

Shoppers are increasingly valuemaxxing: investing time, tools, and information to make every purchase feel justified.

How consumers feel when shopping

feel more in control when they take time to research before buying

feel satisfied when they find a product that feels highly specific to them

Valuemaxxers are hunting for better quality and price

Shoppers and business leaders understand the importance of how quality and price are perceived this season.

How shoppers and businesses weigh value, quality, and trust

of shoppers define good value as higher-than-expected quality for the price

of shoppers usually buy from brands or retailers they already know and trust

of business leaders expect product quality to matter most to shoppers this season

How shoppers decided what's worth buying in the past 12 months

choose products that are the best possible version for their needs, even if they aren’t the cheapest option

buy products specifically to improve or upgrade one part of their life (e.g. health, home, a hobby)

Shoppers are turning carts into watchlists

Shoppers are holding items to revisit rather than buying impulsively in the moment. Conversion depends on both timing and strategy—in response, businesses are meeting shoppers with more precise prompts.

of shoppers deliberately leave products in their cart to decide whether they still want them

How businesses respond to shoppers who plan ahead, track prices, or combine offers

Personalized recommendations

Loyalty points or rewards as part of holiday offers

Price-drop or back-in-stock notifications

What triggers shoppers to purchase their cart

The price dropped or the item went on sale

After having more time to think, I decided it was worth buying

A discount code, voucher, or special offer became available

After comparing other options, I decided this was still the best choice

Tried and true tactics remain important for businesses looking to boost sales

While tactics vary, businesses still lean on proven levers to encourage conversions.

Top strategies businesses plan to implement to drive sales over the holiday season

Deeper or more frequent discounts

Launching new products or collections

Offering flexible payment options

Businesses are incentivizing repeat customers

In a selling season where every new sale will be hard-won, businesses plan to prioritize keeping the customers they already have.

Top strategies business owners take to turn holiday shoppers into repeat customers

Returning-customer discounts

Loyalty or rewards programs

Improving delivery, tracking, or returns

Offering exclusive access to future products or sales

Shoppers continue to move between online and in-store for purchases and discovery

Holiday shopping remains a blended experience, with consumers balancing digital convenience with the value of browsing in person.

How consumers expect to split festive holiday shopping this year

About the same online and offline

Majority in-store

Majority online

Unsure

Are you more or less likely to make a purchase by discovering a product through the following channels than a year ago?

Browsing in a shop

0% More likely0% Same0% Less likely

Browsing on an online store

0% More likely0% Same0% Less likely

More likelySameLess likely

Find the research in your market

Discover country fact sheets featuring local findings, key stats, and methodology.

AustraliaCanadaFranceGermanyItalyJapanSpainUnited KingdomUnited States

Methodology

The consumer survey was conducted among 18,000 shoppers aged 18+ in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, and the US. The interviews were conducted online by Sapio Research in July 2026 using an email invitation and an online survey.

The SMB survey was conducted among 7,500 owners and business decision-makers across Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, and the US in companies with fewer than 1,000 employees. The interviews were conducted online by Sapio Research in August 2026 using an email invitation and an online survey.